PRN: ResearchMoz: China Polysilicon Industry and Chinese Tire Industry 2012 Market Research Report
ResearchMoz: China Polysilicon Industry and Chinese Tire Industry 2012 Market Research Report
ALBANY, New York, June 13, 2012 /PRNewswire/ --
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China Polysilicon Industry
In 2011, the production of polysilicon in Siemens method in China was about 75,000 tons, with an increase of 72.4% YOY. If added with the production of polysilicon in physical method and silane method, the total production of China's polysilicon was close to 80,000 tons in 2011. The capacity under production reaches 120,000 tons; meanwhile, the production capacity of 100,000 tons is under construction. Currently, there are about 80 polysilicon production enterprises in China, forming the competition pattern which is dominated by Jiangsu Zhongneng, Luoyang Sino-silicon, Xinguang Silicon and other enterprises.
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Although the production capacity planned by China's polysilicon industry is large, enterprises are still generally faced with technical problems. A large number of production lines are in the trial phase, or due to high production costs, there is no actual production. In 2011, the total import volume of polysilicon in China was 64,614 tons, with an increase of 36% YOY; the import amount was USD 3.814 billion, with an increase of 42.1% YOY. This means that China's import demand for polysilicon is still great.
The production costs of Chinese polysilicon enterprises are much higher than the international standards. When polysilicon prices are high, Chinese enterprises can still make profits. With the gradual decline of prices of polysilicon in the international market, the profitability of domestic enterprises presents a downward trend. The international average production cost of polysilicon with improved Siemens method is about 20-23 USD/kg, while the polysilicon production costs of Chinese enterprises is around 30-40 USD/kg which is about 50-60% higher than the international cost.
In the second half of 2011, when a large number of solar energy enterprises in Europe and America stopped production or closed down, and the environment of international PV market was further deteriorated, prices of polysilicon globally continued to fall and even hit the minimum value since the financial crisis in October, and continuously refreshed the record low. With the continuous decline of prices, Chinese polysilicon enterprises began to stop production in a large scale. By the end of 2011, except for part of polysilicon plants, about 80% of the polysilicon enterprises in China suspended production, with dismal market performance.
The Chinese government introduces the requirements of Polysilicon Industry Access Conditions. For example, the scale of each solar-grade project should be over 3,000 tons/year, and that of semiconductor-grade project should be over 1,000 tons/year. For solar-grade projects, the overall energy consumption must be less than 200 kWh/kg. In terms of environmental protection, except that the water cycle efficiency is more than 95%, waste water, waste gas, solid waste, noise and other aspects also must meet the relevant environmental standards. Currently, over half of Chinese polysilicon manufacturers are small enterprises, and the annual production capacity is generally 1,000-3,000 tons. These enterprises mostly cannot meet the requirements of the production scale and energy consumption. It is expected that by the end of 2012, these SMEs are mostly eliminated. It is also estimated that, there would be about 20 polysilicon manufacturers left in China</! span> eventually according to the Polysilicon Industry Access Conditions.
In China, the growth space of polysilicon demand is large and the development prospect of the industry is bright with large numbers of market opportunities. But China's polysilicon industry is in a period of development, facing technological risks, environmental protection risks, barriers to international trade and other risks. Accordingly, investors need to be cautious.
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Chinese Tire Industry
In 2011, output of Chinese rubber cover tires reached 832.1 million, rising by 8.55% YOY. Among it, output of radial tire was 393 million, accounting for 47.25% of the total output. Radial rate of Chinese automobile tires further rose. From the aspect of output in different regions, the output of cover tires in Shandong Province reached 300 million, increasing by 3.12% YOY and accounting for 36.60% of the total output in China. Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province and Anhui Province followed closely.
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In 2011, the sales revenue of Chinese tire manufacturing enterprises exceeded CNY 400 billion. In recent years, China encounters severe inflation and the prices of tires' raw materials keep rising. Moreover, the rising procurement cost of raw materials of Chinese tire manufacturers results from the adjustment of Chinese monetary policy as well as the frequent occurrence of natural disasters in Southeast Asia which makes the demand of natural rubbers exceed supply. In 2011, the sales revenue of China's tires was mainly increased by the rising price of rubbers and the increasing share of highgrade tires.
International tire giants have begun to successively enter China since the 1990s. Attracted by Chinese low production cost, multinational tire enterprises mostly regard China as one of their important production bases around the world. Such advantages as huge market demand and low cost in China greatly appeal to tire investments from the world. Currently, over a half of Chinese tire market has been occupied by foreignfunded enterprises. Besides, foreignfunded enterprises firmly dominate Chinese highend market, and their profit rate is generally twice or even much higher than that of Chinese domestic enterprises.
In China, international tire giants possess huge advantages, while most domestic enterprises are in small scale with less strength. According to incomplete statistics of China research and Intelligence, by the end of 2011, there were over 500 Chinese tire manufacturing enterprises. In the next 3 to 5 years, Chinese tire industry is predicted to accelerate the speed of M&A, and many small and mediumsized enterprises will fade away, i.e. these enterprises will either be acquired by advantageous enterprises or go bankrupt.
In 2009, Chinese tire export amount dropped by 4.7% YOY, while in 2010 Chinese tire export amount rose by 35.2% YOY, reaching USD 10.388 billion. In 2011, Chinese tire export amount even increased by more than 40% YOY, reaching USD 14.762 billion. The tire export of China has basically overcome the influence of Special Protection Case.
In 2011, under the conditions of the exports increasing and price of natural rubbers falling, the profit of Chinese tire enterprises slightly improved.
Though China has become the world's largest new automobile market since 2009, the number of automobile ownership per capita in China is still small. In 2011, the automobile reserve number of per 1,000 people in China was less than 80, lagging far behind the level of 600800 per 1,000 people in developed countries. It is estimated that Chinese automobile market will maintain the annual growth rate of over 10% in the next few years, and the annual growth rate of Chinese tire market will exceed 15% with the increasing Chinese automobile reserves. In Chinese automobile tire market, demand for replacement tires is about twice that for supporting tires in the maintenance market, accounting for over 2/3 of the entire tire market.
As China has basically possessed complete upstream and downstream of the tire industry chain and relatively cheap energy and low price of labor force, Chinese tire industry still owns huge advantages compared with some other developing countries in recent years, and sees a gradual growth in export and domestic demand in the next few years.
The annual output of China's tires accounts for about 1/4 of the world's total. China has become the largest manufacturer, exporter, and consumer country of tire industry in global. The homogenization of China's tire industry is severe, i.e., simply seeking the growth of quantities and coping production capacity which cause the low technological and valueadded products, as well as the fast expansion of medium and lowend production capacity. So enterprises have to seize market by means of price reduction, which leads to the intensified market competition and the vicious circle of the industry. The export of Chinese tire is facing increasing trade barriers, and the way of low costs has come to an end. Aiming to maintain longterm and stable development, Chinese tire industry must change its development pattern, i.e. transferring from exportoriented pattern to domestic demandled! pattern.
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